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Midterm Madness: The Crowd Tries to Predict the Election

by KC Crain on November 5, 2006 - 12:34pm.

To try and entice political action “Midterm Madness” at The Washington Post and Predict06 have turned Election Day into a game: asking for predictions in every congressional race to see if your picks will match the final outcome and if the crowd is any good at predicting elections.

The Predict06 community, an experiment in political crowdsourcing, will forecast the outcome for each election by averaging over 50,000 votes collected in just three weeks.

The site also gives a welcome breakdown of the most contentious races in both the House and Senate. My personal favorite is the Senate race between Democrat Harold Ford Jr. and Republican Bob Corker, home to the infamous, and arguably racist ‘Playboy’ ad.

Predict06’s community see it going to the Republican Corker, leaving ‘reasons’ or comments that support their belief, and links to news stories that inform users about the race. It’s an insightful twist, where user comments act like scouting reports from the people who should know best, the voters themselves.

I spoke with Martin Wisckol, political reporter for the Orange County Register, who commented that sites like Midterm Madness and Predict06 could not be very indicative of the vote because they are small, unscientific samples of the American electorate. While they enrich the experience of people who already care and interact with politics over the Internet, they don’t attract new participants.

But at least they try.

As the title suggests, “Midterm Madness” is designed to mimic March Madness, the hugely popular NCAA basketball playoff bracket. Less than a week running, “Midterm Madness” has amassed 3,153 submissions and predicting a sizable sweep by the Democrats: a full 40 percent of players predict democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. The community at Predict06 is more moderate in its expectations, predicting Republicans will hold the Senate by a narrow two seat margin, and that Democrats will take control of the House by picking up 20 seats.

You can see my choices and those of thousands of others at Midterm Madness Or, you can join my “pool” at Predict06.

We’re wondering if sites like these will have implications beyond Tuesday. Will it be better than exit polls? Can voter prediction sights cut through the popular malaise when it comes to politics, or do they still need a wider user base? We’ll find out come Wednesday and let you know how the crowd fared. In the mean time, join in and play along!